April 15, 2020

This posting is taking a slightly different approach than the prior one. The next posting will go back to something more like the first’s format.

A Bit of Comic Relief

On March 30^th, while the world was absorbed in COVID 19 a captain in the Venezuelan navy demonstrated that others have far more basic issues.  His navy patrol boat, the Naiguata, intercepted a German cruise ship, the RCGS Resolute, in international waters off the coast of Venezuela. The cruise ship was told to follow the Navy vessel to harbor. The cruise ship captain refused; at which time some sailors began firing AK47s at the cruise ship. No one was injured, in part because there were no passengers on board. Then it gets crazy. The Navy vessel proceeded to ram the cruise ship, perhaps to force it towards the harbor. However, the Venezuelan vessel was no match for the double hulled cruise ship. Soon thereafter, the Navy vessel took on water, and eventually sank. Not surprisingly, the story is explained very differently depending on whose account you hear.

I Heard It On The Grapevine

The hashtag world doesn’t seem to need a “grapevine” anymore. However, it the old days (when I was growing up) the grapevine was a highly reliable source of news which hadn’t broken. Mostly about things happening in the community, not world events. You talk about “he said, that she said, that he said…..”

Monday morning I braced the cold winds and decided to walk around  Lake Merritt. This is a gem of Oakland, not far from downtown. Easy to get to from anywhere in Oakland. Lots of people exercise here any various times of the day (including crews who row there), Forget about finding a place for a family picnic on a sunny Sunday afternoon. (Group gatherings in parks are forbitten these days.) In the course of a long walk (the lake is about 3 miles around)  I saw the following messages, usually spray painted somewhere inappropriate. Signs of the times?

Capitalism is the virus

Despite my opinion we would do better with a much weaker central government, I concede we do need federal government to do some things. One of which is, on a limited basis, make sure capitalism doesn’t go amuck. I am troubled by income inequality in our society. I believe the answer to this pressing issue is to get closer to “equal access for all”. Note, that is different than the opinion we need  “equal outcomes”, as some propose. Effort, intelligence, focus, and some luck should determine who “wins”.  A very good place to start this transition is to vastly improve the schools attended by poor people.

Many members of society are not stakeholders in our robust, largely “free market”. They live in great uncertainty, have no capital reserves, are often in poor health because they can’t afford to see a doctor, and so on. Equally troubling to me is the sense that many Millenials (roughly those in their twenties to late thirties) have seen the downside of capitalism (2008 crash), and actually prefer a more socialist society. (I wish I could talk one on one with someone who fits that bill!)

I don’t believe capitalism is a virus. I assume the author thinks socialism is the cure. It is incredible to me the author can’t see that hundreds of millions who have gained a comfortable life in our free market. Further, I wish the author had considered the fact that many previously highly socialistic countries have chosen to reduce socialism in society. A good measure of the level of government spending as a percentage of GDP. Fareed Zakaria documented this recently on his Sunday morning GPS broadcast. In other words, what Bernie Sanders is pushing (a very large federal government with dramatically more spending than current) , isn’t really what those countries are doing today. Many have reduced the spending of the government in the economy.

Nationalize Amazon

This is actually quite interesting. The author may not be aware Amazon lost money for its first 12 years of operations, about half its corporate life. In addition, he/she may not know the company started by selling about 20 product lines, mostly books. How things change!  Thanks to enormous growth they now are among the biggest businesses in the world. Last year they had $280bb of sales. They revolutionized many businesses, starting with the way we buy and read  books. It boils down to one thing: Amazon’s founder, Jeff Bezos, understood something early on that others missed. When internet sales really started growing, the goal was to maximize “shelf space”, not generating a profit. Because of their commitment to grow the company by re-investing in the future, today you can buy just about anything at Amazon today. They dominate that sector.

It may be the author thinks Amazon is so large, it should be a regulated utility. No one can argue they aren’t large. In 2019 they delivered over 3bb packages world-wide. It had somewhere between 500-800,000 employees in 2019. (Different sources provide different results. This may stem from one counts only FTE’s while others count all employees.) However, usually bigness is not a sufficient condition to break up a successful company. (Look at the failed effort of the government to break up IBM, and the equally failed outcome of breaking up the phone company AT&T into RBOCs.) Bottom line, our markets have a way of self-correction. Does anyone worry about IBM’s dominance today?

However, the size argument doesn’t work for me. In almost all cases, Amazon has competition. In addition, while its user base is huge, there are lots of people who never use it. Also, more than half their sales come from third party sellers who are just using Amazon as a sales portal. Finally, one need only consider the operation of another operation which seems like Amazon. The US Post Office has five times as many delivery personnel but delivers 50 times as many items. (I get it the post office delivers everywhere, and Amazon delivers where demand is located.) In 2019 Amazon made $11bb, while the USPS lost $8bb. I wonder how satisfied the author is concerning Post Office “service”?

Gavin Has Rent Money

This one baffled me. Gavin is an unusual name, so it is a good guess this reference is to our governor. I admit it, I am not a big fan of his. However, I commend his early and clear interdiction concerning COVID 19. I also like the professional way he has managed this tricky situation. His daily briefings are important, and well done.  I think our state is much better off because of his early decisions.

But was the intent to have people in need call his office for rent assistance? Clearly, deals are being made in this difficult area.

I understand California is a very expensive place to live, particularly in the bay area and Los Angeles.  I did a quick search for some of the least expensive cities in the USA. There were 40 medium to large sized cities where a 2 bedroom apartment (about 750 sq. ft.) would be under $1,000 per month. In Oakland, only 4% of the market was under $1,000, while 82% were above $2,000. It looks like an average for Oakland is close to $3,000 monthly, with plenty of units well above that. It has been painful to watch as the market has gone through the roof, as the supply of rental units has not kept pace with the demand. This is particularly true for the lower end of the market.

I wonder if the writer realizes the very strong legislation which has been passed on a state and local level which greatly protects renters, and is generally adverse to the best interest of building owners. Contrary to popular impressions all landlords and not big corporations or “fat cats”. One of Oakland’s city council meetings I watched was devoted to protecting renters. A couple who were landlords stood up. They explained they had recently retired as school-teachers and had invested in a two unit apartment for their retirement. Their idealism probably will probably end up hurting them. Sad.

In addition, we have watched big east coast cities grapple with the steady pricing out of the market of long time, lower income residents. In the end, rent controls really don’t solve the problem.

Because of the expense, the state has developed many, many programs to help those who are having trouble “getting by”. Residents can get free phones, food stamps, free lunch programs for kids in school, subsidized energy, and the like. I am not against this.

Bottom line, there is a demonstrated need for some to get help to cover the basics. What doesn’t make sense to me is the focus of this note. I bet the grapevine is a very reliable source of information of what might be available.

The COVID 19 World Crisis

Postings Starting March 13  to Who Knows

We have entered uncharted waters. This virus was largely unknown three months ago.  Back then Corona was just a beer from Mexico. However, the virus is on everybody’s mind now. I want to observe what happening, so I am going to keep some notes. I have seen lots of things which I haven’t seen before. Like most people, I am trying to understand as much as I can.  I found the World Health Organization’s detailed data on a website  (www.ourworldindata.org/coronavirus). You can check their bona-fides, which look very good to me. Each day I will post what I think is accurate data so we can see trends. Early on,  I was told the UK has done a very poor job of dealing with this, so I will post the number of confirmed cases and deaths in the US and UK. In addition, our financial markets have reflected the scare, so each day I will report the change in the DJII from the prior day. Let’s see where this takes us.

3/13/20

Day -3   Strong Warning Signs

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         1,264               594

Deaths                         36                    8         

DJII                              +9.4%

Usually, I am not a suspicious person. However, I realized something was definitely up. In the morning when I shot my worst round of golf on an otherwise beautiful day. Felt great, played lousy. I got home at 1 PM, and Carol told me she was unable to shop. The crowds of people getting ready for “whatever” translated into no parking places. Period.

I volunteered to go, and started at Target. We needed toilet paper, sanitary wipes, etc. I was shocked to see many shelves were completely bare. This isn’t Russia, our free market works. However, when people hoard, the system gets balled up. That is exactly what was happening. Then to Berkeley Bowl and Whole Foods for food. Their shelves were often bare, as well. It took 90 minutes each to check out of these mobbed stores. People in line seemed to be bracing for the unknown. There was no six feet of separation.    

The radio warned of acute shortages of toilet paper, as people bought up everything on the shelves. And, forget about getting the N95 masks, personal sanitizers (Purell), and sanitary wipes.

3/14/20

Day -2    Confirming More to Come

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         2174                707

Deaths                         47                    10

DJII                              N/A

The flood of cancellations started quickly. No NCAA March Madness is crushing to me. That is perhaps my favorite sporting event. I am sorry that red hot teams like the Dayton Flyers have lost their chance to show everyone how good they really are. The Olympics, which are scheduled to start in July, are “going forward”, so far. Non-essential flying was discouraged. Everyone watched the daily charts which states showed the quickest increases. Washington and California are off to a “bad” start.

Non-essential group meetings have been discouraged. That really made me laugh. During my career I hate to estimate how many non-essential meetings I attended. A very savvy boss of mine once told me if I am not in front of a client, or working on a financing, I was not doing my job. In this case and many others, he was more right than wrong. One other maxim of Ben’s was “business is personal”. To succeed, your co-workers, clients and advisors need to know you. That means spending social as well as deal oriented time with them. It was my good fortune, he often concluded that meant us having Friday lunch dates at the PU club playing backgammon, or dominos. Quality time, and that buffet had just about anything you might like.

3/15/20

Day -1      Last “Free” Day

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         2,951               1,140

Deaths                         57                    21

DJII                              N/A

As explained above, I will track COVID 19 in the UK and USA. They are perhaps our closest ally. It has been painful to watch as they have worked to extricate themselves from the EU. I am in the minority and think this can be a good thing for them, but there is much to do. Today the UK population is 66.4mm, or about 20% of our 327mm. Fifty years ago their population was 27% of ours. During that time, their population grew 11mm (20%), while ours grew 122mm (nearly 60%).  That is a profound difference, which doesn’t bode well for them.

3/16/20

Day 0     It Starts Now

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         3,774               1,140

Deaths                         69                    35

DJII                              -13%

With all sorts of directives expected, we filled up our cars, did one last shopping (but didn’t buy ice cream), got cash from the ATM, and ordered out dinner from a favorite local spot. It’s official, starting tomorrow, the rules kick in big time.

I attended my last in person meeting for the next few weeks. (Going forward our committee will use Zoom which is great.) Anticipating things wouldn’t get back to normal, our Rector proposed “Easter in June”, knowing it won’t happen as now scheduled on April 12.  This is horrible news for me for a couple of reasons. Lent has never been my favorite time of year. The music of the period is depressing to me. No Joy. Making Lent longer is bad news. It also means delaying the fantastic music of Easter.

3/17/20

Day 1 Stay in Place

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         4661                1543

Deaths                         85                    55

DJII                              +5%

So, what’s so hard in this new world after just one day?

·      Can’t go to the Exercise facility where I work out most days. (that also means no steam room, which I love.)

·      Can’t putt the 36 balls I putt at the beginning of each day. In fact, no golf period.

·      Can’t (shouldn’t) jump in the car to do errands.

·      Turning on the TV is guaranteed to have bad news: either COVID 19, the election, or the markets. This too shall pass.

·      Can’t see friends.

·      I have not felt like I have an ankle bracelet on, yet.

Working out now means going out for long walks. It is usually cold when I go out, often before the sun has risen. Very quiet, not many people out. It is actually a  pleasant way to start the morning. I listen to classical music, podcasts, or rock & roll. All have their place. Yes, I wear one of those bright worker’s vests so cars can see me. Traffic on roads is visibly lower than usual.

I read that Zoom had 300,000 new customers in one day, as people learn more about their terrific video conferencing product. It is truly great, but we have all seen lots of good products whose companies aren’t a good investment. Schwab reports Zoom’s PE is a modest 1,800. (At least that means they are making some money.) Today’s PE is a bargain compared to their peak of a bit over 2,200. It appears the stock is up 50% in the last month. Again, using Schwab data, all major rating sources which cover ZM rate it as a HOLD.  Caveat Emptor.

Poor Ohio. The governor and other officials wanted to postpone their scheduled primary, but 11^th hour jockeying was needed to postpone.  Biden won all the states today, including a one sided win in Florida (76%-22%). What could go wrong? Who knows?

Spent part of the afternoon planting beautiful small flowers in our new terraced side area.  Our Bacopa are light purple and white, the colors of our local high school. Also cleaned out our outdoors garden storage room. Surprising that never got to the top of the “to do” list. You could eat on the counters now.

Italy, Spain, and other countries are “locking down” key cities or their country. Many countries have stopped allowing people to come into their country.

In the USA, we are told to wash our hands in hot, soapy water for 20 seconds. That is the time it takes to sing Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star or Happy Birthday twice. It is also the same time it takes to see all the highlights of the Democrat’s presidential debates of the last 12 months.  (We have got to change the way we elect our president!)

3/18/20

Day 2 Self Isolation

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         6427                1950

Deaths                         108                  55

DJII                              -6%

The Dow is bouncing around like a rubber ball. Usually valuations change fractions of a percent in a typical day. These aren’t typical days. Are program traders accentuating this volatility?

Our local Episcopal diocese (essentially about 60 churches in the bay area) announced all services are cancelled, other than those done electronically.  Can you imagine a couple who had set their wedding date for this coming Saturday, only to have this come up? What about memorial services?  Life goes on. We will see what we will see.

Carol and I are taking great satisfaction in doing projects around the house. Carol has cleaned out her cloths closet. I finally crossed the bridge by recognizing the 100 LPs, and more cassettes aren’t essential anymore. I hope wherever they end up, they are enjoyed as much as I did. You Tube allows me to hear just about anything, any time. If you haven’t tried this, you should. Pick your favorite piece and view it.

Here are two pieces which I think will bring joy to your day:

·      Handel’s “As Steals the Morn” (L’Allegro HWV 55) performed by Voices of Music (SF based) featuring Amanda Forsythe and Thomas Cooley performed 11/4/19

·      Mozart’s “Laudate Dominum” performed by Bel Canto Choir Vilnius performed 3/1/11

(An interesting option of the same piece is the performance by Barbara Hendricks dated 11/2/17.)

So long as I have access to music like this, I can get through anything.

3/19/20

Day 3 Self Isolation

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         9415                2630

Deaths                         150                  103

DJII                              +1%

Note US numbers were restated by 50% upward in last few days. This can’t be surprising since our healthcare system is so decentralized and this is such a fast changing situation. Expect more of this. Likely in all cases, it will be increases from previously reported levels.

As of today, world-wide confirmed cases totaled 213,254, while deaths confirmed were 8,843. That is a rate of 4.1%. However, that is likely overstated since many may have the virus but not be confirmed in the morning.

You all know “older” people are  more at risk. Guess who they are talking about? I learned of senior shopping time (usually when a store opens and remains for two hours). The intent is to minimize crowding for those most at risk. In search of the holy grail (sanitizer wipes, gloves, and toilet paper) I got to Safeway 15 minutes after it had opened. All the toilet paper which had been delivered the night before was gone. (At least I saw people with TP!) I asked a clerk about gloves, and he took me to a shelf which had them!!! Awesome. My first instinct was to grab them all but decided to just take one package of 2 pair. Shortly there-after the same clerk came to me and asked if I was interested in a small Purell. Having only seen pictures for the last week, I thanked him and took it. A final deal sealer, he agreed to hold some TP for me tomorrow morning. America is great. (It turns our Carol found 8 rolls in our storage area. Fade out to We’re In The Money.

You know things aren’t normal when the ironing board comes out. Has it come to this? Carol has done hours of ironing. I am guessing every house has some drawer where stacks of clean, un-ironed napkins, and the like live. They don’t see the light of day much before the afternoon of a dinner party. Think of ironing as getting ready to re-socialize. I can hardly wait.

I heard today that half of the cases in the USA are in 3 states and 10 counties. California, Washington, and New York, are the states. The map demonstrates huge concentrations.

Tonight, our governor ordered the state is on shut down. Everyone is to self-isolate. This is a dramatic and bold step. By drastically limited contact with others, the spread of the virus should slow. However, this is going to mean economic hardship for many, many people. I can’t imagine the scale of this devastation will take.

3/20/20

Day 4 Self Isolation

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         14250             3277

Deaths                         150                  144

DJII                              -5%

For the past few days, when walking,  I have seen young families with their kids biking, walking, or whatever. School is out so parents have their hands full 24x7. I hear about groups which are forming shared teaching situations. Awesome.

More importantly, it’s what I don’t see these days which is great. Way less traffic. This translates into less noise,  but the pace of life seems to slow down with less cars. I can’t tell how much traffic has decreased in Oakland and Piedmont. I would guess something like 50%. We get so use to traffic in our area we take it for granted. Thus, I can’t tell you how far back one needs to go to have this as our traffic level.

Face it, the bay area has lost a lot of its appeal in the past several years.  Harder to drive around. Restaurants are more crowded, and more expensive. People move  a bit faster and are more often rude or ignore those around them. More hassles. And of course, crime and homelessness hasn’t improved things.

BTW, did you notice for the past 6 trading days, the DJII had alternated from a day up to a day down. However, during those days, the measure has lost 10%. Added to losses in February the equity markets are off about 1/3^rd through today.

March 21, 2020

Day 5 Self Isolation

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         19624              3983

Deaths                         260                  177

DJII                              N/A

On my walk this morning, I got to thinking about isolation. I grew up with three siblings, and always shared a bed-room with one of both of my brothers. Throughout college I had room mates, culminating in my last year in college when I roomed with three other guys. They  turned out to be my best friends. And, I have been married for over 50 years. My jobs always involved working with small groups of people, and then interfacing with clients. Thus, not much time on my own.

The closest to isolation happened at boy scout summer camp. Each summer our, quite active, Berkeley troop had a three week camp experience on a PG&E lake near Big Bear. We had to hike about 6 miles in to get to the camp site. When I was 14, two other scouts (about the same age) and I left camp. We had our packs stuffed with clothing, food, a sleeping bag and tarp, and very importantly a topo map and compass. We were taking our 20 mile hike, which would complete the hiking merit badge. Ruy, Art, and I were on our own for probably three days and two nights. I am happy to report it all went without a hitch, because of our growing knowledge, an abundance of caution, and good luck. (I looked online today and most of that beautiful area has succumbed to drivable roads, camp sites, and lots of people. When we were there, it was highly unusual to see anyone other than our troop and dads.

3/22/20

Day 6 Self Isolation

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         22767              5018

Deaths                         340                  233

DJII                              N/A

Most Episcopal churches had some sort of virtual church service. I watched a few, and all had something to offer. (Unfortunately, music is largely missing, and that is why I go to church.) Toilet paper has been in very short supply in the East Bay, and elsewhere. Starting 10 days ago or so, a “run” started on TP. I have learned the US produces about 7 billion rolls per year. (I assume we don’t import additional supply.) Seven billion equates to an average of about two rolls per month per person. Note, manufacturers has quietly shrunk the typical size of TP from 4.5”x4” (1999) to 4”x3.7”. That’s nearly a 20% drop is size. I am going to stick my neck out and bet prices didn’t drop. It seems reasonable to assume the demand for TP is usually very stable. Thus, stores probably keep no more than a few days’ supply are on the shelves most of the time. I conclude,  it doesn’t take too many people to hoard, to goof up the supply chain. I would guess a few hundred at each store would do the trick.

3/23/20

Day 7 Self Isolation

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         35206              5683

Deaths                         471                  281

DJII                              -4%                 

We had our first virtual lunch today. We chatted with our good friends the Bonds, as we swapped funny stories, discussed the virus, while having lunch.  It is great to see friends during this time of isolation.

3/24/20

Day 8 Self Isolation

Measure                      USA                 UK

Confirmed Cases         41442              6650

Deaths                         590                  335

DJII                              +11%              

Face it, Congress has suffered from grid-lock for some time. They have failed to reach compromise in many critical areas, as “business as usual” continues. (I am always heartened by the quote attributed to the comedian Will Rodgers who said, “Be glad we not getting all the government we’re paying for”.) Well COVID 19 got the congress on the same page in a few days. The Senate passed an 880 page bill while is filled with financial aid to groups in need. (How many people actually read this bill?) Two trillion is about one month of our GDP. Many are saying this colossal bill is just the first step. I certainly agree drastic steps like this (and bold initiatives by the Federal Reserve) are essential to keep the economy from going off the tracks. Even with this, some predict a double digit unemployment rate in a month or so.  In addition, a drop in GDP growth may be as high as 30% annualized.

If I remember correctly, the original size of this bill was about $1 trillion, so lots was added as the sausage was made.

This Could be the Start of Something Big

In February 1809, the United States awaited the inauguration of our forth president, James Madison, which was one month away. On the European continent Napoleon was facing a new type of opposition, guerrilla warfare, in the Peninsula Wars. In Spain citizens resisted when he replaced their king. They led ambushes, sabotaged the “invaders”, and ignored the usual rules of war.

On Sunday February 20, 1809 two babies were born each of whom would change the course of history. In time they both challenged conventional wisdom in different areas. Their beginnings could not have been more different. The first was born in Shrewsbury England to a wealthy, well-connected family. (His father was a doctor and his mother was a Wedgewood, a family already known for making excellent china.)  The other was born in a modest 12 foot by 18-foot one-room cabin in Hardin County Kentucky. The family and relatives were poor. The English family was Unitarians, while the later was Separate Baptists who didn’t consume alcohol, dance, or “frolic”. The former grew up in a family where lively, intelligent conversations were the frequent by product of evening meals of plenty. The later family never had “too much on the table”. Given the absence of education, conversation was probably sparse.

We recently visited the Galapagos Islands, about 600 miles off the coast of Ecuador. As you likely know, this is a unique, protected environment of a wide assortment of species. Some only exist on those islands. This is the first of what may be several postings concerning this trip. As you have probably figured out, the young boy from England was Charles Darwin, who is inexorably linked to the Galapagos. The other was perhaps our greatest president, Abraham Lincoln. Darwin’s important role in these islands and the coincidence of he & Lincoln share a birthday makes this a good place to start.

Lincoln’s family moved around during his youth, looking for better opportunity. Darwin’s family stayed at their estate, the Mount. Darwin showed an early interest in nature, while Lincoln was forced to work around the house. Darwin went to the best schools, but often got poor grades, attributed to his lack of attention. His father worried “he had no direction in his life”. Lincoln had one year of formal education. (Of course this was supplemented by his prodigious effort in self-schooling.) Not insignificantly, both lost their mother before the age of 10. Darwin’s father convinced him to enroll in medical school at the age of 16.  He found the lectures “dull” and the surgery “distressing”.  His father sensed a disaster, and withdrew his son after two years. Darwin was then placed at Christ College, Cambridge to earn a BA, as the first step to becoming a minister. Once again parental direction could not override his unbridled interest in nature. As was the rage at the time, Darwin loved to collect beetles, and spent lots of time with various similarly inclined scientists. He graduated with a degree in Geology from Christ College Cambridge in 1831. He was 10^th in his class of 178, not bad for all dad’s worries. The plans for ministry were off the table. Shortly after graduation Darwin received an invitation to join a sea voyage to chart the west coast of South America, as well as collect specimens. Dad, predictably, was against this two year “boondoggle”. However, an uncle convinced him this might be good, and dad subsequently acceded to the request and provided needed funding. That voyage took Darwin half way around the world. (In contrast, Lincoln never traveled very far. He lived his life in about one quarter of our current borders.) The trip started just after Christmas 1831. It lasted five years. Darwin’s work on that voyage, and his subsequent thinking changed the way we see nature. What if dad had not changed his mind?

The year Darwin set sail on the Beagle, Lincoln struck out on his own. He found a series of jobs, each without much future. For example, in 1832, he and a partner purchased a general store. Later that year he ran for the Illinois state assembly. He lost because he had no financial backing, or connections.  Two years later he tried again, and won. He stayed in the state legislature for 8 years.

While Lincoln was toiling in the state legislature, Darwin was on an adventure. He studied the geology of land they visited. He also collected so many specimens (and thought they were so valuable) he sent home boxes and boxes complete with careful notes at many ports they visited. The scientists who received them were thrilled at the diverse and sometimes unknown specimens.  Darwin’s only regret was his frequent bouts of seasickness.

In 1836 the Beagle returned home. Darwin has reams of un-sent notes, and hundreds of new specimens. At age 27, he had no job. Soon he decided his work would be to study and write about his research. Dad arranged a group of “angels” to  privately fund that work. The ensuing 25 years were years of hard work and growing success for Darwin. He moved to London to focus on his work, and later was accepted into the elite Royal Society, which began nearly 200 years earlier.  In 1853 he was awarded their prestigious Royal Medal for his work. He published several books culminating in the release of the Origin of the Species in 1859. (That book was funded by a Treasury grant of the equivalent of today’s $100,000, not a bad investment.) One year earlier he learned of Alfred Russell Wallace who was developing similar ideas concerning the new idea of evolution. There was a joint presentation to the Linnean Society in 1858, which Darwin missed because of illness. His radical thinking and intelligence resulted in the theory of evolution and the concept of the survival of the fittest. Both have stood the test of time, but were widely challenged and ridiculed at the time they were introduced. They were particularly challenged by the church which believed God created the world in six days. To me, his thinking is well summarized by this quote: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change”. Time and again on the islands we saw how birds or reptiles evolved to live more efficiently.

 One of my favorite pictures of Darwin is below, showing ape like tendencies.

In their prime of life, neither gentleman distinguished himself in courtship. Twice, Lincoln decided on a partner, became engaged, and then backed out before the wedding. Three times was a charm, as he was captivated by Mary Todd in 1840, waited two years to propose, and tied the knot in 1842. Darwin moved a bit more quickly, but equally unsurely. In July 1838, he contemplated marriage by writing advantages & disadvantages. On the plus side were: “a constant companion, friend in old age, and better than a dog”. On the down side was “less money for books, and a terrible loss of time”. He ended up marrying a cousin, Emma Wedgewood, in 1839. I’m guessing they didn’t get Limoges china.

Lincoln’s progress was inconsistent. In his early-married life, Lincoln started a law practice in Springfield, IL, often representing railroads. In 1846 he ran for congress, and won. However, he failed to get a subsequent expected appointment and returned to practice law. In 1854 he gave his Peoria speech, which was his first strong public stand against slavery. In the 1856 election he was considered, but not chosen for the Republican VP position. However, his real national political presence started in 1858 when he had seven debates with Steven Douglas as they vied for a US senate seat. Lincoln was eloquent in the debates, but lost the election.

Luck smiled on him at the 1860 Republican convention. Supporters of the front-runners, particularly, Samuel Chase and William Steward, fought hard, but inconclusively in ballot after ballot. Finally, Lincoln was chosen as a compromise candidate. In the general election he carried almost all states except the south, which was united in their desire to leave the nation over the issue of slavery. Before his inauguration in March 1861, several southern states left the union. One month into office, the Civil War started when southern troops fired on Fort Sumter.

The ensuing years were gut wrenching for the president and our divided country. He was troubled by a series of poor generals to lead the union troops, inflation, a need to raise taxes to fund the war, and his need to exert unpopular executive powers in time of war (such as suspending habeas corpus). Voters punished his Republican party in the mid term elections of 1862 (complaints of inflation, higher taxes, and too much government power. Sound familiar?) However, slowly, the tide of the war turned.

A few months after a convincing victory by the north, the president was asked to give a short speech at the Gettysburg Soldiers’ Cemetery in November 1863. Astoundingly, the president was not the featured speaker. That honor went to the distinguished Edward Everett. Everett spoke for over two hours and was well received. However, history is unanimous; on that day Lincoln delivered one of the best political speeches in our history. The assessment the next day was not unanimous. The Chicago Times observed “The cheek of every American must tingle with shame as he reads this silly, flat and dishwatery utterances of the man who has been pointed out to intelligent foreigners as the President of the United States.” Below is a picture of Abe on a battle site.

 In the end the south could not compete with the more wealthy and industrial north. Lincoln won re-election in November 1864, and the war ended in April 1865. The 13^th amendment prohibiting slavery passed in December 1865. Not bad for less than 5 years work.

Unfortunately for the country, the bodyguard assigned to guard the president and his guests at the Ford Theater in April 1865 decided to join the president’s driver for a drink away from the theater. Lincoln was shot and died at the age of 56.

Darwin lived for nearly 20 more years. He wrote 25 books including an autobiography, and was widely recognized. Unfortunately, the pressures of his life resulted in many episodes of health challenges and intermittent bouts of failing health. He died on April 19, 1882.  His clear legacy lives on.

Two very different men, each born on the same day, changed to world they knew and influenced later generations. However, don’t assume it was just 20^th of February. Others who share that birthdate include local political hack Joe Alioto, actor Loren Green, labor organizer JL Lewis, and indescribable Charles Van Doren.